Tuesday, December 18, 2007

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A WINTER
STORM THIS WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY AS THE FOCUS. AS FOR WHAT
FALLS...AND WHERE...IS ANOTHER MATTER. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THIS TIME MORE EAST. PREVIOUS TO
YESTERDAY...THIS WAS THE GFS/S STORM TRACK...UNTIL IT SHIFTED WEST
WITH THE EC A RUN OR TWO AGO. THIS EAST SOLUTION ALSO HAPPENS TO BE
WHAT THE PREVIOUS 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES HAD FOR A STORM TRACK...AND
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. SO...FEELING IS THAT THE MODELS ARE SETTLING
DOWN WITH THEIR STORM TRACK...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. THIS
MORE EAST TRACK WILL MAKE SNOW THE DOMINANT PCPN TYPE FOR FRI
NIGHT/SAT...WITH WARM AIR LOW LEVEL AIR LEADING TO A SNOW/RAIN MIX
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THANKFULLY...THE TRENDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WARMING CONTINUE TO INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW...RATHER THAN SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. WILL ADJUST FRI NIGHT/SAT POPS/WX GRIDS FOR A
MORE SNOWY SOLUTION. STAYED TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS/FORECASTS...AS
THIS HAS THE LOOK OF A HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HOLIDAY TRAFFIC. HEADLINES COULD BECOME NECESSARY IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IF THIS STORM DEVELOPS AS PROGGED.

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